Tim Thoughts

It’s draft day! For sports fans like me, today is a big day. Despite the fact that annually the Cleveland Browns find a way to draft talent that never pans out, the draft is still exciting. Here’s my perspective on what to expect from the Browns tonight in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.

The first thought process to go ahead and remove from your consciousness is the idea of team need. The Browns need talent at nearly every position, so need will most likely not factor into the 1st round selection. Also, most teams like to say they are drafting the best player available. In essence, a team would rather take the best player they can at a given spot in the draft rather than reaching for a player who could be had 5 to 10 picks later. Teams can always make trades later, but drafting best player available allows them to maximize value.

With that being said, the one position that I’m 99% sure the Browns will not touch with the #7 overall pick is offensive tackle. The Browns’ Joe Thomas is a top 3 tackle in all of football, and so any drafted O-tackle would be counted on to play right tackle. The Browns do not want to pay a right tackle what the #7 pick will warrant. So you can immediately cross out Russell Okung, Trent Williams, and Bryan Bulaga from consideration.

If the Browns trade up

Trading up in the draft, especially from #7 to somewhere in the top 5, is a very expensive move. I believe the only player the Browns would be willing to trade up to select is Sam Bradford, the Oklahoma signal caller. But he’s slated to be taken #1 overall by the Rams tonight, and the compensation for a move from #7 to #1 would likely include the Browns 2nd round pick, a mid round pick, and next year’s 1st round pick. If you make a trade like that, you better not be wrong. I do not believe this is in the Browns plans. But I do believe the Rams are listening to trade offers for the pick, because they have yet to agree to a contract with Bradford, which often happens leading up to the draft.

If the Rams feel that Jimmy Clausen gives them the same potential talent as Sam Bradford, they may be tempted to draft Bradford and wait to see who Clausen falls to before offering a trade of Bradford for Clausen and additional compensation. This would save the Rams money and give them additional draft choices.

If the Browns stay at #7

Eric Berry

With the #7 pick in the draft, odds are the draft pick will be a defensive player. As a Browns fan, I’d love to see Eric Berry, the safety from Tennessee, fall into Cleveland’s hands. However, Berry is considered by most to be a top 5 talent and a game-changing safety at the next level like Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu. For Berry to slip to #7, the Browns probably need some combination of three of the following players to be drafted #4-6: Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Jimmy Clausen, C.J. Spiller, and Derrick Morgan. If somehow Berry finds his way to #7, he’s the pick for the Cleveland Browns.

But what if the Chiefs or Seahawks grab Berry? Realistically, that leaves the Browns wanting to trade down to somewhere in the middle of Round 1, which we’ll cover in a moment. But assuming Berry is gone and the Browns can’t find a trade partner, I think we’ll see either C.J. Spiller, Derrick Morgan, or Earl Thomas selected.

Spiller provides a sorely lacking playmaker on the offensive side of the ball. He can line up at tailback and comfortably split out wide playing receiver. He might be most valuable to a team in need of a kick returner, and that’s not the Browns, but his offensive prowess alone may make him the pick at #7.

Derrick Morgan played primarily defensive end in a 4-3 defense at Georgia Tech. But the Browns have to be thinking he can make the transition to 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s fast and flexible. His pass rush moves are limited, but he has the raw ability to build from. Personally, I think Brandon Graham from that school up north is a better 3-4 OLB, but he’s most likely to go in the #11-20 range.

Earl Thomas, the Texas Longhorns safety, has really moved up draft boards over the last year. Suddenly, he’s considered option 1B if Eric Berry is 1A. Thomas plays cover the pass much better than the freakish athlete  Taylor Mays.

If the Browns trade down

I think the Browns only hope of trading down in the draft is if Berry is gone but Jimmy Clausen is still on the board. If this is the case, a team may want to find a way to jump over the Bills at #9 to land Clausen. I think if the Browns can trade down to a pick in the #11-17 range, guys like Brandon Graham, Joe Haden, Jared Odrick, Mike Iupati, and Sergio Kindle enter the discussion.